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The Greenwood Consensus  

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Sir Jonathan Horncastle
(@sir-jonathan-horncastle)
Member
Joined: 5 months ago
Posts: 23
06/03/2019 7:55 pm  

The Greenwood Consensus

A Politics UK Future History

By Rick

 

The 2018 General Election, the first to be held under the Alternative Vote+ (AV+) system, gave way to a new era in British politics. But that era was also defined by its first Prime Minister, Emily Greenwood.

 

Born and raised in the Lake District, Greenwood studied PPE at Churchill College, Cambridge, married her childhood sweetheart John in 2005, and served as a Labour activist after Uni.

 

Elected for Copeland in 2010 after serving on the Allerdale Council, she served as Shadow Secretary of State for Culture, Media, and Sport in the Corbyn Shadow Cabinet, before being elected to replace him in 2017, defeating the unmemorable David Cohen and Gordon Wilson-Davis handily.

 

In the 2018 General Election, Greenwood successfully maneuvered Labour to the top of the Commons, joining in a coalition with Harry Flyte and the Liberal Democrats. But what happened next?

 

Greenwood’s First Term

Whereas one could see the year-long premiership of Harold Saxon as being primarily focused on domestic issues, Greenwood’s first term was, much to her displeasure, focused around foreign issues, in particular, the Middle East.

 

Around the end of Saxon’s tenure, Iran had forcibly ejected the United Nations weapons ambassadors. Greenwood primarily focused on assisting President Trump in strategically taking out certain facilities, however she pulled out in an effort to keep her coalition united and supported the US through other resources. As Iran got closer and closer to getting nuclear power, Greenwood and Trump would not be able to bring the Iranians back to the negotiating table.

 

Additionally, in Israel, tensions between Hezbollah and the IDF, which had broken out into skirmishes during the Saxon premiership escalated into a full on crisis in 2020. Greenwood, working alongside a harangued President Trump, supported the right of those territories to belong to Syria as the UN insisted. Despite disagreement from a number of her advisors who thought that that wouldn’t work, including Defense Secretary James Forster, who resigned over this matter, Greenwood eventually capitulated and allowed for Trump’s orchestration of that land being brought under UN control for a period until Hezbollah was cleared out.

 

Domestically, Greenwood also was able to push through a few of her major reforms - Amelia Lockhart’s New Agenda for the New Economy and New Budget for the New Economy were seen as cornerstones. Also, she successfully pushed through her public transportation goals, including the nationalisation of BritRail, much to the chagrin of the Reform Party.

 

Additionally, with the thanks and advocacy of the Liberal Democrats, voting rights in the House of Lords were suspended for 90% of the hereditary and appointed members, to be elected every five years, and Fixed-Term Parliaments were re-introduced at four years instead of five.

 

The 2022 General Election (It Was The Greens Wot Done It)

 

Greenwood, feeling antsy about her work with the Liberal Democrats, sought a renewed mandate from the country in 2022. Gathered around her on the debate stage were Deputy Prime Minister Flyte, Opposition Leader Helen Drake, Reform Leader Michael Kirton, and Green Leader Amelia Womack. Greenwood and her partners were rising high on the back of a mostly successful Parliament and term.

 

Womack’s success and charisma at campaigning provided issues for the Liberal Democrats. Giving both government parties the what for about their lack of environmental issues and not being more proactive with Iran, Jeff Weaver, one of Womack’s advisors, encouraged negatively campaigning against the Lib Dems. The “vote orange, get red” campaign caused a spike in Green votes and a drop for the Lib Dems.

 

Commons Results

Labour Party: 213, 31.54% (-29)

Conservatives: 200, 28.64% (-12)

Reform: 145, 23.68% (+38)

Lib Dems: 36, 6.26% (-6)

Green: 20, 6.06% (+7)

SNP: 14, 2.22% (+1)

PC: 4, .72% (+1)

DUP: 5 (=)

SF: 5 (=)

UUP: 3 (=)

SDLP: 3 (=)

ALL: 2 (=)

 

Lords Results

Elected Lords (385 Seats)

Labour: 121

Conservatives: 110

Reform: 91

Lib Dems: 24

Green: 23

SNP: 9

PC: 3

DUP: 1

SF: 1

UUP: 1

SDLP: 1

 

Unelected Lords (78 Seats)

Labour: 20

Conservatives: 13

Reform: 2

Liberals: 8

Green: 2

Plaid: 1

SNP: 1

DUP: 1

UUP: 1

Crossbench: 24

Spiritual: 5 (Cantab, York, London, 2 elected by GS)

 

During the government formation period, now held in the open for the first time, Michael Kirton of Reform openly stated from the start that he was not planning to approve any sort of deal. As such, Labour, appointed by Queen Elizabeth II, attempted to form a government first. However, it soon became clear that any party would require the support of Reform. As such, Greenwood decided to welcome the Green Party into the coalition, and negotiated with the SNP, Plaid Cymru, Alliance, and the SDLP to support confidence votes. And she was still 30 votes away from getting a majority. Recognizing the need for stability, Kirton agreed to allow a free vote for his MPs and Lords on confidence votes.

 

Greenwood’s Second Term

At the outset of her second term, Greenwood pivoted more towards domestic issues, but found herself stifled by her lack of a majority in Parliament. However, in January 2023, the world found itself changed.

 

On January 23, 2023, on the occasion of Queen Elizabeth’s final state visit to a country due to her health, in Washington DC, a sniper successfully shot and killed her and the President.

 

The aftermath was swift. President Pence, upon gaining intelligence about the situation, sent troops into Lebanon and Iran to find and root out Hezbollah. However, a rogue squadron, looking for revenge, successfully sniped Ali Khamenei. The Assembly of Electors selected Hassan Khomeini, grandson of the Ayatollah Khomeini, as the new Supreme Leader.

 

In the wake of the assassination of the monarch, Greenwood was seen as a unifying figure during the ascension of King Charles III to the throne. However, her relations with the second Ayatollah Khomeini were much better than that of her’s with the previous Ayatollah, and in one of her final major actions as Prime Minister, worked to bring Iran into the worldwide community of nuclear powers. However, in January 2024, Greenwood was tired, and wished to see her youngest child grow up first hand. And as such, she resigned.

 

Lockhart’s First Term

Amelia Lockhart was without a doubt the Major to Greenwood’s Thatcher or the Brown to Greenwood’s Blair in simplistic fashion. Greenwood’s capable Chancellor, who oversaw the New Agenda and New Economy, would be tasked with trying to give Labour a third term in government.

 

Unfortunately, while Lockhart was one of the best economic Prime Ministers Britain has ever had, she fell and stumbled as oil reserves started to dwindle. Her Secretary for Creation Care (Energy/Environment/Climate Change), Simon Forster, one of three people to consistently serve in the same position throughout Greenwood’s tenure, alongside Home Secretary Adam Lang and Foreign Secretary Heather Holson, notably tripped up on Question Time on the topic of renewable energy, stating that “we need to use all the oil we have and then we can look at nuclear” an idea that proved unpopular with Communities Secretary Womack and Creation Care Minister Baroness Lucas.

 

When Lockhart confirmed that this was her line of thinking as well, Womack and her party walked out, and Lockhart found herself with no other choice but to call a General Election in the Commons.

The Rt. Hon. Sir Jonathan Horncastle
Chief Whip (2014-Present)
Secretary of State for Transport and Infrastructure (2013-2014)
MP for Cities of London and Westminster (2001-Present)

Parliamentary Experience: Unknown (11)
Media Experience: Novice (22)
Policy Experience: Unknown (11)


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Sir Jonathan Horncastle
(@sir-jonathan-horncastle)
Member
Joined: 5 months ago
Posts: 23
06/03/2019 7:55 pm  

The 2025 General Election

The country was ready for their first Conservative government in ages - and it showed. After Drake’s resignation in 2022, the Tories elected a dual ticket - Charles Trenython as Leader alongside his immediate appointment of Matthew James as Deputy Leader. Seven years removed  from the first AV+ election, and the entire 2018 stage had left - it was now Lockhart, Trenython, Kirton, Flyte, and Womack in the leaders debate; Yurtseven, James, MacBeth, Kilfedder, and Berry in the deputies debate; and Castle, Summer, Lang, James, and Lucas in the Chancellors debate.

 

With Trenython’s grounding in local and environmental issues, the Tories adopted the hyper-localism strategy that they still use today - every contest is primarily local, and then regional - you don’t need to drag national issues in to it.

 

Commons Results

Conservatives: 236, 35.46% (+36)

Labour Party: 195, 29.85% (-18)

Reform: 110, 18.65% (-35)

Lib Dems: 35, 6.04% (-1)

Green: 39, 6.46% (+19)

SNP: 13, 2.01% (-1)

PC: 4, .65% (=)

DUP: 5 (=)

SF: 5 (=)

UUP: 4 (+1)

SDLP: 3 (=)

ALL: 1 (-1)

 

While Lockhart was able to tide away most of the issues (having constituencies instead of straight up PR helps Labour and the Tories), Reform beared the brunt of the voters wrath, many people who actually wanted to see Reform’s policies in government left them for the Tories.

 

Michael Kirton resigned after this result, and the party passed over Joan Kilfedder to elect Diane James as their leader instead, who promptly entered into a Coalition with the Tories.

 

Trenython’s First Term

Charles Trenython’s first term was effective, but unpopular. Having the first actual majority in the Commons since before AV+, Trenython’s Government was able to get things done without having to worry about wheeling and dealing.

 

One major issue was Reform’s presence. While not the UKIP of old, certain members still held some out of the box views. One of these was Diane James, who served a record three days in the Home Office before resigning as Party Leader and from the Cabinet. While no one has ever officially known what happened, reports by The Guardian and The Times have both stated that James was pressured into leaving by members of her party, once they heard about her authoritarian plans for the Home Office. In her place, they elected the Libertarian-leaning Bill Etheridge, whom Trenython would never give a Great Office to, but would rely on him for Constitutional matters.

 

However, what many Britons associate the Trenython term with is what is colloquially called by older Britons “The Dump.” The Dump, officially known as the Baroness Margaret Thatcher International Airport, was one of Trenython’s biggest policy initiatives in his first year. Sir Boris Johnson, the former Prime Minister, had always proposed the idea of an airport on an artificial island in the Thames estuary. Labour had done minimal work on the airport expansion issue, funding some regional expansion and additional gates at Gatwick, but they never had the support of Parliament to do anything more. Designed by Lord Foster, in one of the final designs before his death, Trenython was able to work with him and environmental scientists to make it more environmentally friendly, in addition to increasing infrastructure in the area.

 

However, as Britain’s economy tumbled downwards in 2028, the project came under fire from public spending advocates, who termed it to be a waste of money. And as Trenython attempted to defend his decisions (and throw Chancellor Andrew Summer under the bus), the funding remains. Since his loss in 2029, Trenython is somewhat of a political recluse - he has not accepted an appointment to the Lords, and his only major appearance was at the opening of Thatcher Airport.

 

2027 Lords Election

Labour: 141

Conservatives: 100

Reform: 81

Green: 27

Lib Dems: 20

SNP: 9

PC: 3

DUP: 1

SF: 1

UUP: 1

SDLP: 1

The Rt. Hon. Sir Jonathan Horncastle
Chief Whip (2014-Present)
Secretary of State for Transport and Infrastructure (2013-2014)
MP for Cities of London and Westminster (2001-Present)

Parliamentary Experience: Unknown (11)
Media Experience: Novice (22)
Policy Experience: Unknown (11)


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Sir Jonathan Horncastle
(@sir-jonathan-horncastle)
Member
Joined: 5 months ago
Posts: 23
06/03/2019 7:56 pm  

The 2029 General Election

Liam MacMahon, Greenwood’s campaign coordinator and confidante won the election upon Lockhart/Yurtseven’s dual resignations in 2025. Endorsed by Greenwood, he successfully defeated Chuka Umunna and was seen as the true “heir to Greenwood,” something that she would never deny thinking.

 

For the Liberal Democrats, they turned to the Scottish MP Jo Swinson, formerly one of the youngest MPs and seemingly their own version of William Hague. As MacMahon, Swinson, Etheridge, Womack, and Trenython stood on the debate stage, MacMahon’s presence and charisma won the day, bringing back recollections for many of CleggMania. And when the results came in, there were no surprises. Labour was headed back to Number 10. Again.

 

Commons Results

Labour Party: 260, 39.49% (195)

Conservatives: 191, 28.94% (236)

Reform: 77, 12.37% (110)

Lib Dems: 48, 8.52% (35)

Green: 39, 7.23% (39)

SNP: 12, 1.89% (13)

PC: 5, .69% (4)

DUP: 5 (=)

SF: 5 (=)

UUP: 4 (=)

SDLP: 2 (-1)

ALL: 2 (+1)

 

So What Happened Next?

MacMahon served his full term, won another election in 2034, and resigned in 2035. The Party then did another Blair/Brown or Greenwood/Lockhart and elected his deputy, Iris Sayer. However, Sayer quickly proved to be over her head, and due to threats from both of her coalition partners, called a General Election in 2035. In the 2035 GE, Matthew James successfully led his party into Number 10 and served two and a half terms (through to 2046) before resigning, becoming the first Tory PM since Cameron to serve more than one term in office.

The Rt. Hon. Sir Jonathan Horncastle
Chief Whip (2014-Present)
Secretary of State for Transport and Infrastructure (2013-2014)
MP for Cities of London and Westminster (2001-Present)

Parliamentary Experience: Unknown (11)
Media Experience: Novice (22)
Policy Experience: Unknown (11)


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Sir Jonathan Horncastle
(@sir-jonathan-horncastle)
Member
Joined: 5 months ago
Posts: 23
06/03/2019 7:56 pm  

State of the Parties in 2040

Labour: A big tent with three major factions - Blairites, Corbynistas, and Greenwoodites (listed in order of smallest to largest). With the exception of Iris Sayer, most leaders since the woman herself have all been Greenwoodites.

Conservatives: After doing some soul-searching in the early 2020s due to Reform’s rise, the Tories eventually found their niche as the party of local concerns and comprehensive foreign policy.

Reform: After their drop due to the downturn of 2028-29, Reform never fully made it back to 100 seats again, always landing in the 80-90 range depending on the circumstances. Strongly regarded by bookies as the most likely party to have a split, their libertarian camp is at war with their authoritarian camp.

Liberal Democrats: Labour’s “best friend,” having served in government with them every time, the Liberals primarily are recognized for their Europhilia and “humanitarian intervention” foreign policy, as their mantle of “compassionate community building” was stolen by Greenwood and Labour.

Greens: They’re the same as ever - and now generally require Labour to move to their left on environmental issues every few years, so that’s a win for them.

 

State of the National Consensus in 2040

Emily Greenwood’s post-AV+ consensus continues to rule the nation - greater democracy and access to democracy, a strong code of ethics, and a sense of ‘fair play’ are all taken for granted at this point in British history. While never seen as the best Prime Minister of all time, she is regarded in the same breath as Thatcher, Attlee, and Disraeli - people that undoubtedly made their mark on this United Kingdom.

 

Academic Post-War Rankings of Prime Ministers (1945-2046)

  1. Clement Attlee (Lab, 1945-1951)
  2. Emily Greenwood (Lab, 2018-2023)
  3. Margaret Thatcher (Con, 1979-1990)
  4. Tony Blair (Lab, 1997-2007)
  5. Matthew James (Con, 2035-2046)
  6. Liam MacMahon (Lab, 2029-2035)
  7. Harold Macmillan (Lab, 1957-1963)
  8. Harold Wilson (Lab, 1964-1970 1974-1976)
  9. John Major (Con, 1990-1997)
  10. Sir Winston Churchill (Con, 1951-1955)
  11. Amelia Lockhart (Lab, 2023-2025)
  12. Jim Callaghan (Lab, 1976-1979)
  13. Ted Heath (Con, 1970-1974)
  14. David Cameron (Con, 2010-2016)
  15. Gordon Brown (Lab, 2007-2010)
  16. Charles Trenython (Con, 2025-2029)
  17. Sir Alec Douglas-Home (Con, 1963-1964)
  18. Iris Sayer (Lab, 2035)
  19. Sir Anthony Eden (Con, 1955-1957)

 

Great Offices History

Greenwood and Lockhart Ministries

Prime Minister: Emily Greenwood (2018-2023), Amelia Lockhart (2023-2025)

Deputy Prime Minister: Harry Flyte (2018-2025)

First Secretary of State: Kemal Yurtseven (2018-2025)

Chancellor: Amelia Lockhart (2018-2023), Nigel Castle (2023-2025)

Home Secretary: Adam Lang (2018-2025)

Foreign Secretary: Heather Holson (2018-2024), Liam MacMahon (2024-2025)

 

Trenython Ministry

Prime Minister: Charles Trenython (2025-2029)

Deputy Prime Minister: Diane James (2025), Bill Etheridge (2025-2029)

First Secretary of State: Matthew James (2025-2029)

Chancellor: Andrew Summer (2025-2028), Sir Dylan Macmillan (2028-2029)

Home Secretary: Diane James (2025), Andrew Hammond (2025-2029)

Foreign Secretary: Catherine Willoughby (2025-2029)

 

MacMahon Ministry

Prime Minister: Liam MacMahon (2029-2035), Iris Sayer (2035)

Deputy Prime Minister: Jo Swinson (2029-2035)

First Secretary of State: Iris Sayer (2029-2035), Liz Kendall (2035)

Chancellor: Bridget Phillipson (2029-2035), Rebecca Long-Bailey (2035)
Home Secretary: Simon Forster (2029-2035),

Foreign Secretary: Charles MacBeth (2029-2035)

The Rt. Hon. Sir Jonathan Horncastle
Chief Whip (2014-Present)
Secretary of State for Transport and Infrastructure (2013-2014)
MP for Cities of London and Westminster (2001-Present)

Parliamentary Experience: Unknown (11)
Media Experience: Novice (22)
Policy Experience: Unknown (11)


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Mary Jones
(@thereformer)
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06/03/2019 8:08 pm  

Awesome

Darlington | UKIP


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Kidbooo
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Posts: 5
23/03/2019 12:05 pm  

MacMahon served his full term, won another election in 2034, and resigned in 2035. The Party then did another Blair/Brown or Greenwood/Lockhart and elected his deputy, Iris Sayer. However, Sayer quickly proved to be over her head, and due to threats from both of her coalition partners, called a General Election in 2035. In the 2035 GE, Matthew James successfully led his party into Number 10 and served two and a half terms (through to 2046) before resigning, becoming the first Tory PM since Cameron to serve more than one term in office.

 

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Kidbooo
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24/03/2019 7:19 pm  

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