Anton - MRP Calculator

Wherein the great gods of the A-Team will grace you with information and knowledge.
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Corgi
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Anton - MRP Calculator

Post by Corgi »

We are changing how PolUK does polling. From today, we are using a multilevel regression and poststratification calculator to forecast polling and election results. This is in the same vein as YouGov's model that accurately predicted the 2017 hung Parliament. I believe that this is a hugely exciting evolution of our historically predictable system. It is at the forefront of political forecasting.

We will now be monitoring Gender, Age, Socio-Economic Class, Race and Education to form the underlying data that will spit out our results. This means that we are now defacto tracking 192 different voter permutations (e.g. "MaleWhiteBelow DegreeAB18-24").

Thanks to census data, this enables us to realistically and accurately target and maniulate voters at a micro level. More information will be forthcoming about how this works - and I will happily field any questions that may arrise.

This does, however, mean that we as an Ateam are requesting that the next election is fought upon the 2010 boundaries. Limited data from 2001-2005 makes this nescessary for the calculator to work. We are conscious of the potential implications of this upon you all, but feel that by making this calculator available to all we are giving ample time for parties to shift electoral strategies if needed.

In spite of this small snag, I am extremely proud to present Anton to you all. After four different versions, it has taken me more than a year's on-off work to get it to this 'complete' stage. I would like to take this opportunity to also thank Mac for his help over the past week, where he has helped me convert it into a fit state for publication.

And whilst i'm thrilled with how far Anton has come, the work, of course, doesn't stop here. There are a number of additional features that will be added soon, including an automatic map and a sliding scale for the 'centre ground' of each policy issue. Anton also does not have a gorgeous user interface, and this is something that will be made a priority. Anton is now an open source venture that every person can contribute to, should they be interested. You simply have to click "File" and then "Make a Copy". Alternatively, please come to me with suggestions for anything that you feel should be added!

So here he is, in all his glory: Anton.

Please note that these numbers are for show only. They do not reflect any PolUK polling.
User avatar
Corgi
Posts: 28
Joined: Mon Dec 07, 2020 11:09 pm
Constituency: The Pound
XP: 0
Trait(s): Chief Woofer
Discord username: JunkyardCat

Re: Anton - MRP Calculator

Post by Corgi »

I've put together a user handbook for Anton so as to simplify it all. Please ping any questions my way!

Also please note that an updated version of Anton has been rolled out to fix some bugs that I was encountering. This new version is linked on the post above.

Anton User Handbook
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