The Economist

Also known as the gutter press, the papers present the viewpoints of various segments of society, and give MPs an opportunity to write directly to them.
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Blakesley
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The Economist

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Re: The Economist

Post by Blakesley »

Ballsup Britain

Making it to Brexit was the easy part
Getting through is the challenge

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One might be excused if they mistook the parties in the early morning of 13 April for a triumph of democracy in the United Kingdom. Yes, Brexit was achieved and the result of the referendum honoured. But the chaos in Parliament that led to this moment only shows how far we have to go.

Thus far, a few bonfires and the ringing of Big Ben that night costs the United Kingdom two prime ministers (Mr Cameron, who brought us into this mess, and Mrs May, who sacrificed herself to get us out). Meanwhile, a row over rampant antisemitism in the Labour Party cost Mr Corbyn, the leader of the opposition, his job. A botched trial and potentially trumped up allegations sees the Scottish nationalists now feuding with each other (while attempting to govern the country). New divides between nationalists and moderate unionists and vehement unionists threaten an already shaky peace in Northern Ireland.

That's before one remembers that the UK still runs the risk of a no deal Brexit and now has a new deadline to complete a comprehensive trade deal with the EU, lest the UK revert to trading on WTO terms, which is a fancy euphemism for "with no real benefit". Not to mention the litany of trade deals which the UK is going to have to renegotiate or extend before leaving the EU's custom's territory (also on 31 March 2020).

While some may see the triumph of democracy in 13 April, Britain's first full day outside the EU, others might have cause to see the beginning of a great unravelling or perhaps, more genially, a descent into Hull.

The dual resignations of Mrs May and Mr Corbyn and the promise of new leadership atop both of the UK's major parties only papers over the cracks. Vitriol hurled at Labour MPs who voted for Mrs May's final Brexit deal show the divides in that party. The nature of Mrs May's victory, with her deal only making it over the finish line after a threat to send the Tories into electoral oblivion, highlights the fractured nature of the governing party. Each new leader will be elected to the sounds of party unity, but they'll have to move quickly to ensure back that unity with actions that show the tempestuous factions of each party can be held together.

Holding those factions together will be critical if the UK is to make it to the next Brexit hurdle as a prosperous state - or even a complete state. Fiscal pressures from a no-deal Brexit and a hostile economic climate as Britain approaches formal separation from the EU might dampen spending. Nobody says austerity is coming back, but the thought lives in leading fiscal planners minds. Human challenges - from poverty to health and housing - threaten the underlying social fabric of Britain. Looming nationalism - ranging from the hostile white nationalism that thinks antisemitism is acceptable to the Scottish and Irish varieties that threaten the integrity of the British state - poses challenges for the UK and its people remaining fundamentally whole.

Even with these grand challenges that need attention, Brexit will remain an elephant in the room. While the EU will likely seek a trade deal that allows for more movement between the UK and EU, Britain's next prime minister may be loathe to accept such an outcome. The new prime minister will be selected by the 120,000 members of the Conservative Party, who are whiter, older and richer and keener on a Brexit trade deal that prevents free movement rather than resolving the issues of a divided country beset by fiscal woes, social challenges, and rising nationalist fervour (some might even say that the voters in the coming Conservative election drive such fervour).

Yet if politicians can gather the strength to move beyond Brexit, they can begin the careful work of putting the country back together again. With Mrs May and Mr Corbyn's exits, Britain's future is as radically uncertain as it has ever been. All options—a splintered nation, a broke nation, a broken nation—are still feasible, but so are their converses. Navigating the dangers in Britain's future path will require deft statecraft from all involved. Should our new leader not act with care over the coming months and years, we might find a truth from the Roman Virgil, who famously lived through the decline of the Roman Republic: easy is the descent into hell.
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